Debate Preview: Is the debate tonight the last chance for Kasich?

Kasich needs a good showing

John Kasich is somebody who really seems to have lost any momentum he once had. He desperately needs a good showing tonight if he wants to have any chance of becoming a general election threat, as a poor performance and continued slippage in polls could force him into the secondary debate by next time.

Look for Rubio, Cruz, and Bush to attack each other as well as Trump

The mainstream Republican candidates that look like big election threats right now are Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Jeb Bush. I would expect them to go after each other a lot, as well as Donald Trump.

Carson and Fiorina both have an opportunity tonight

This is a big chance for Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina to paint themselves as outsiders with more reasonable views than Trump. The types of candidates polling well indicates that a lot of people want an outsider in the White House come 2016, leading to the success of Trump and Carson in the early polls.

Democratic Debate #1 Tonight: Why this is important for outside contenders

The Democratic Debate, which tonight on CNN airs 8:30 EDT live from Nevada will consist of five out of the six major candidates in the Democratic field: Former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley, former Virginia Senator Jim Webb, and former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee. Harvard Law Professor Lawrence Lessig was not invited to the debate. This debate is especially important for O'Malley, Webb, and Chafee, since they are all polling under 5 percent, making this debate a big chance to get more recognition for their ideas.

Martin O'Malley could benefit from the national exposure the debate will bring for him

Webb will try to appeal to Democratic voters hoping for a more right alternative to Clinton, while O'Malley and Chafee could try to sway voters on either side of Clinton, though I would expect them to portray themselves as on the right since Bernie Sanders has a solid footing as the left alternative to Clinton.

Republican Debate 2 is tonight. Who needs a good performance?

With the field down one candidate after former Texas Governor Rick Perry's withdrawal, the second Republican debate will air on CNN tonight at 8 pm EDT (1:00 am UTC). It will use the same primary/secondary system that the FOX News debate used, with the primary debate include the same 10 who participated in the main event in August as well as Carly Fiorina. The secondary debate, which airs earlier tonight, will consist of Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, and Rick Santorum. Former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore, though considered a major candidate, was not invited to the debate.

Who needs to show up? 

For me, this debate is a huge opportunity for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson. He's only trailing Donald Trump by 4 percentage points in a recent CBS news poll and has appeared to surpass Jeb Bush in many polls. Carson's political views are the closest to Trump's in the rest of the field and he could shift some of the Trump supporters if he can show himself as a calmer version of Trump with equal political knowledge and power.

Ben Carson could benefit substantially from a strong debate

I think this debate is also important for lower-polling candidates like Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, and Rand Paul to try to convince voters who don't know much about them that they are strong candidates. If they fail to do this in these next few debates, they could be out of the race before the primaries even start.

Saturday Update 8/1/14: Republican Debate #1-Who will make the cut?

The Republican Debates start up next week when the top 10 candidates according to FOX News' polling average square off in Cleveland at 9 pm this Thursday night. The candidates that are outside the top 10 will participate in a roundtable at 5 pm. However, being in the 10 person field for the 9 pm debate will be critical for candidates who want to stand a chance since most undecided voters will only watch the 9 pm debate.

Who will the 10 be?
The 10 will be announced Tuesday but to try to figure them out early, I have taken a look at the polling averages from RealClearPolitics and the Huffington Post. Based on these polls, it's clear Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, and Scott Walker will without a doubt be in the debates as they are the top 3 on both lists. Ben Carson, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Mike Huckabee are in the top 8 in both lists and also seem likely to participate in the 9 pm debate. Both averages also have Chris Christie and John Kasich holding slight leads for the final. This would leave Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, and Jim Gilmore out of the debate.

Saturday Update 6/13: Clinton Gives First Major Campaign Speech

For the rest of the time until the election, I'm going to give you an update on top news stories each week. This is the first one of these and I hope you find it informative.

Clinton Holds First Major Rally in New York
Hilary Clinton held her first major rally on Roosevelt Island in New York City today, giving a 45 minute speech to the thousands in attendance. She struck a tone that she would fight for the rights of both middle class Americans and women, saying that she would try to end wage disparity between men and women, fight for paid sick and family leave, and push for universal preschool. She also called out Republicans who she says have turned their backs on gays. Allison Moore, the spokesperson for the Republican National Committee criticized the speech as "chock full of hypocritical attacks, partisan rhetoric, and ideas from the past that have led to a sluggish economy leaving too many Americans behind." She went on to predict that "Next year, the Americans will reject the failed policies of the past and elect a republican president.

Bernie Sanders announces he will run for president. Does he have any chance?

Sanders announces his presidential campaign

The Democrats have their first major candidate to oppose Hilary Clinton. Independent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont announced on Thursday that he would challenge Clinton in the Democratic Primary. Before I get into Mr. Sanders' chances of winning, I'm going to give you a quick history of his career and political views. He was born in 1941 and elected the Mayor of Burlington in 1981. He served as mayor until 1989 and was elected to congress in 1990. In 2006, after 16 years in the house, he successfully ran as an independent in the senate election for Vermont and has been a US Senator ever since. He will probably be the most liberal candidate in this primary for the Democrats in fact identifying as socialist. He is liberal on most social issues, including gay rights, abortion rights, climate change, and abolishing the death penalty. He also supports Universal Health Care, a system that allows everyone to get health care at no cost. He says his main goal is to create an America that is not run by Billionaires. Now, back to the question of whether he has a chance. What Sanders is going to do is try to be the liberal alternative to Clinton. The only problem is that Clinton has already gained so much support that it is going to be nearly impossible to unseat her. Unless she makes a huge campaign mistake, Sanders will be hard pressed to find a way to top her, though I don't think that winning is what he desires. In my opinion, I think he wants to use this election as an opportunity to get his ideas out to the public and does not have much of an expectation of winning. I project he could potentially finish second though, judging by the 1.5 million in support he received in the first 24 hours of his campaign.

Welcome!

Election season is heating up, so I decided to start this blog now. I am going to take an unbiased look at american politics and elections for the months leading up to the 2016 election. Thanks for taking a look at this blog!

About Me
My name is Bob Smith (I'm not even joking). I live in both Liverpool and Boston, but have taken much more of an interest in American Politics.